NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
Entering the final week of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots remain open. However, far more is at stake, such as the highly desired #1 rankings in both conferences and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have crafted a dramatic finale, with the two remaining postseason places to be decided in a pair of winner-take-all contests.
Current NFL Play-Off Standings
AFC Standings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game will claim the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the first playoff round. Meanwhile, the Bills and the Chargers are locked in as wildcard teams.
The Texans need a win coupled with a Jaguars defeat to jump from fifth to third. The Broncos will earn the #1 ranking with a win, but a setback could pave the way for the Patriots or Jacksonville to claim it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, granting them the fourth seed. However, Carolina could still win the divisional title even with a defeat, contingent on other results.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, though, is the clash for the NFC's top seed between the Seahawks and San Francisco, with a first-round bye and home-field advantage on the line.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in each conference earns a valuable bye week and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
On the Wild Card round, the other six playoff teams compete: the #2 team plays the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
In the Divisional Round, the #1 seeds enter the fray, hosting the lowest surviving team. The conference championship games are then played at the highest seed, highlighting the critical importance of securing that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce grudge match comes to a head in the final game of the regular season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth on the line, this is a true elimination scenario.
Pittsburgh have been up and down all year, while Baltimore started poorly but are still in contention. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may be without key target DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' signal-caller Lamar Jackson is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry might emerge as the difference-maker for Baltimore in what is set up as a physical, low-scoring struggle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is at stake when the Seahawks travels to the 49ers. The victorious team claims the conference's #1 spot and the road to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This game features an explosive 49ers offense against a stingy Seattle defense. Since quarterback Brock Purdy came back, San Francisco have been the league's highest scorers. Conversely, the Seahawks' defense is ranked among the best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' QB their passer must avoid mistakes that have plagued him this season. The team that comes out on top earns a massive edge for the playoff run.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this game with much momentum. The Buccaneers have dropped seven of eight, while the Panthers have squandered chances to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's straightforward: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the scenario is trickier. Even with a win, they require another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans game to claim the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A win over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit starters seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Denver defeat would hand the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They need a triumph and defeats for both Denver and New England to pull off an improbable ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
