Dutch Elections: Key Players and Main Issues in Early Election
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most rightwing administration in recent memory with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the previous government in the summer, when far-right politician the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies deemed him too toxic for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on June 3 after his partners refused to adopt a radical comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all asylum seekers, closing most refugee hostels and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the rightwing, Islam-critical party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are predicted to gain representation, but none is projected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could take several months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to form a majority. No individual group ever manages this, and the Holland has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – earlier if governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any party that secures less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in many European nations, Netherlands political life have been marked in modern times by a significant drop in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from more than 80% in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other policies, a total moratorium on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to combat "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.
However, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who joined political life just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign centred on housing (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its head, accused of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decrease. It is proposing business tax cuts and less welfare.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued FvD – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to decline, with the centrist party not even sure of representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been migration policy, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is lacking 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Given the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the government program. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, most involving a mix of parties from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and one or more smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.
